this year's crop of Oscar nominees is the number of young performers who graduated from popcorn flicks and promising indies to full-fledged A-list actor status.

The Academy seems to have moved beyond knee-jerk nominations for stars like Russell Crowe, Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep for simply showing up to work in the morning. With the exception of Dame Judi Dench who commands attention with every role, this year's new breed of nominees broke through the old-guard ranks in exciting and unexpected ways.

Leading the list of "who knew they had it in them" performances is Heath Ledger, who went from being the guy you always confused with Josh Hartnett to giving the most powerful performance of the year as conflicted cowboy Ennis Del Mar in "Brokeback Mountain." Jake Gyllenhaal and Michelle Williams were equally strong as the love of his life, and wife, respectively.

After years of fine supporting roles, Philip Seymour Hoffman shone in his first starring role as "Capote," as did David Strathairn as Edward R. Murrow in "Good Night, and Good Luck." And how about those three nominations for writer-director and suddenly pudgy guy George Clooney?

Joaquin Phoenix finally got his signature role as Johnny Cash in "Walk the Line." And did you ever think you'd hear the words "best supporting actor" and "Matt Dillon" in the same sentence?

Keira Knightley went from soccer teen and pirate babe to joyously nailing the greatest heroine of English literature in "Pride and Prejudice." Chick flick box office queen Reese Witherspoon proved her dramatic depth in "Walk the Line" and newcomers Amy Adams and Rachel Weisz are now officially on the map.

But who will win?

I've said it before and I'll say it again — to predict who will actually win the Oscars, you must set aside your own personal favorites and try to think like they do in Hollywood, where thousands of industry professionals share one brain.

Best Picture: This is one of those rare years when the best picture of the year will actually win Best Picture of the Year. "Brokeback Mountain" is culturally and historically groundbreaking as Hollywood's first major same-sex love story, but more importantly, it's a beautifully rendered and deeply human film. As an added bonus, a "Brokeback" win will give Hollywood an irresistible chance to thumb its nose at an administration and religious right that has gotten a lot of mileage out of vilifying gays and lesbians. Look for a "Brokeback" sweep of Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay.

Best Actor: Heath Ledger's smoldering performance will be studied in acting classes for years to come, but Hoffman's Capote has the deep nuance, grandstanding flamboyance and great drunk scenes that Academy voters love. Who should win: Heath Ledger. Who will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman.

Best Actress: The opposite of conventional Oscar wisdom will prevail this year. Voters usually flip for total transformations under heavy makeup see Charlize Theron in "Monster" and Nicole Kidman in "The Hours", but Felicity Huffman's turn as the transgendered heroine of "Transamerica" is a dark horse contender behind Reese Witherspoon's June Carter Cash in "Walk the Line." Although she has no screaming, crying or breakdown scenes, Hollywood adores the bankable Witherspoon — and who knew she could sing? Who should win: Felicity Huffman. Who will win: Reese Witherspoon.

Best Supporting Actor: Some voters might be tempted to reward past slights to Paul Giamatti who was famously snubbed for "Sideways" and "American Splendor". But film folk have great respect for George Clooney this year and when they realize he's not going to win for director or writer for "Good Night and Good Luck," they're likely to throw him an Oscar for going serious and frumpy in "Syriana" Who should win: Jake Gyllenhaal. Who will win: George Clooney.

Best Supporting Actress: Ironically, these awards go less often to actors who "support" the leading characters than to those who stand out as being the most memorable part of the film. Michelle Williams would be a shoo-in if the former applied, but Rachel Weisz's performance is what audiences remember most about "The Constant Gardener." Who should win: Michelle Williams. Who will win: Rachel Weisz.

Best of the Rest: The much-admired "Crash" might have cleaned up in a non-"Brokeback" year but it will likely have to settle for Best Original Screenplay. Although audiences didn't quite turn Japanese for "Memoirs of a Geisha" or go ape for "King Kong," the two films are likely to share the design and technical awards. In the age of CGI animation, look for the wacky claymation of "Wallace & Gromit" to break the mold.

Most-Nominated Film Most Likely Go Home Empty Handed: It's a tie! Nichts for "Munich" and "Good Night, and Good Luck" will have neither.

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Jules Vilmur really does care about the Oscars


I like to pretend that I don't care about the Academy Awards. In part, it's because I don't get that engraved invitation and tons of swag or a Valentino gown and borrowed diamonds to drape myself in for a stroll down the red carpet. Quite honestly, Joan Rivers never cares what I'm wearing on Oscar night, which is probably good since it's almost always flannel pajamas and a well-worn T-shirt.

Can I help it if I secretly want to make that stroll, while some stranger shoves a microphone in my face, shouting; "Heath Ledger or Phillip Seymour Hoffman?" Oh I wouldn't be so bold as to have an answer for a question of that magnitude, but still, it'd be nice to be asked. When else am I going to be able to slip "Gustavo Santaolalla's Original Score for 'Brokeback Mountain' simply shreds me!" into conversation?

I like to pretend that I don't care about the Academy Awards because I want to be above the gawking and fawning, the celebrity gossip and gigantic ego-stroking. I really couldn't care less what the Brangelinas and the Bennifers will be wearing or whose wardrobe malfunction will be splashed all over the news come Monday morning. However, having been born into a weird little family whose only real sports are gawking and gossiping, well I'm not nearly as above such things as I'd like to be.

To be perfectly honest, they were probably wise not to invite me, or let me anywhere near the Kodak Theater this Sunday night. After all, I've been practicing my "How 'Sin City' Changed the Future of Filmmaking and STILL Got Shut Out at the Oscars" speech for some time now and no one wants to get stuck standing there while I organize my notes and do the Breathing Exercises for Timid Public Speakers that my ninth-grade speech teacher taught me.

I guess the point is that my deep desire to expound upon the Academy Awards, while still acting as if I don't care about them one bit, is making my family crazy. The argument over whether Reese Witherspoon should or should not win Best Actress for her turn as June Carter Cash, has killed more than one conversation around my dinner table. And yes, Reese probably will walk away with Best Actress Oscar because gosh-darnit, people like Reese Witherspoon, and as Sally Field will tell you, the Oscars are all about being liked.

But it was the Best Animated Feature-Film brawl that broke out over eggs and sausage last Sunday, which convinced me that this is the year I'm finally going to stop pretending. That's right, darlings; I'm coming out of the Oscar closet and you can bet it'll be in my best Little Black Dress. Oh I'll look silly all right, plopped on my couch, in 4-inch heels and a feather boa, and precious few will bear witness to my witty commentary and wild shrieks. But I've heard from a reliable source that they don't let you throw popcorn at ill-prepared winners during wandering acceptance speeches in the Kodak, so all things considered, a grand evening is bound to be had by all.

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TUNE IN:

WHAT: 78th annual Academy Awards

WHEN: 5 p.m. Sunday (PST) | 8 p.m. (EST)

WHERE: ABC


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